How fast and how well the Omicron epidemic was curtailed. A Guangzhou experience to share.

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 has ravaged the world and undergone multiple mutations during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. On 7 April 2022, an epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (BA.2) variant broke out in Guangzhou, China, one of the largest transportation and logistical hubs of the country. Methods: To fast curtained the Omicron epidemic, based on the routine surveillance on the risk population of SARS-CoV-2 infection, we identify key places of the epidemic and implement enhanced control measures against Omicron. Results: Transmission characteristics of the Omicron variant were analyzed for 273 confirmed cases, and key places involved in this epidemic were fully presented. The median incubation time and the generation time were 3 days, and the reproduction number Rt was sharply increased with a peak of 4.20 within 2 days. We tried an all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, and the proportion of confirmed cases increased from 61.17% at Stage 2 to 88.89% at Stage 4. Through delimited risk area management, 99 cases were found, and the cases were isolated in advance for 2.61 ± 2.76 days in a lockdown zone, 0.44 ± 1.08 days in a controlled zone, and 0.27 ± 0.62 days in a precautionary zone. People assigned with yellow code accounted for 30.32% (84/277) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, and 83.33% of them were detected positive over 3 days since code assignment. For the districts outside the epicenter, the implementation duration of NPIs was much shorter compared with the Delta epidemic last year. Conclusion: By blocking out transmission risks and adjusting measures to local epidemic conditions through the all-out effort to tackle the epidemic in key places, by delimiting risk area management, and by conducting health code management of the at-risk population, the Omicron epidemic could be contained quickly.

Crucial control measures to contain China's first Delta variant outbreak.

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant flared up in late May in Guangzhou, China. Transmission characteristics of Delta variant were analysed for 153 confirmed cases and two complete transmission chains with seven generations were fully presented. A rapid transmission occurred in five generations within 10 days. The basic reproduction number (R0) was 3.60 (95% confidence interval: 2.50-5.30). After redefining the concept of close contact, the proportion of confirmed cases discovered from close contacts increased from 43% to 100%. With the usage of a yellow health code, the potential exposed individuals were self-motivated to take a nucleic acid test and regained public access with a negative testing result. Facing the massive requirement of screening, novel facilities like makeshift inflatable laboratories were promptly set up as a vital supplement and 17 cases were found, with 1 pre-symptomatic. The dynamic adjustment of these three interventions resulted in the decline of Rt from 5.00 to 1.00 within 9 days. By breaking the transmission chain and eliminating the transmission source through extending the scope of the close-contact tracing, health-code usage and mass testing, the Guangzhou Delta epidemic was effectively contained.

Different Circulation Pattern of Multiple Respiratory Viruses in Southern China During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

China implemented stringent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in spring 2020, which has effectively suppressed SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we utilized data from routine respiratory virus testing requests from physicians and examined circulation of 11 other respiratory viruses in Southern China, from January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2020. A total of 58,169 throat swabs from patients with acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) were collected and tested. We found that while the overall activity of respiratory viruses was lower during the period with stringent NPIs, virus activity rebounded shortly after the NPIs were relaxed and social activities resumed. Only influenza was effectively suppressed with very low circulation which extended to the end of 2020. Circulation of other respiratory viruses in the community was maintained even during the period of stringent interventions, especially for rhinovirus. Our study shows that NPIs against COVID-19 have different impacts on respiratory viruses.

Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak originating in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, coincided with chunyun, the period of mass migration for the annual Spring Festival. To contain its spread, China adopted unprecedented nationwide interventions on January 23 2020. These policies included large-scale quarantine, strict controls on travel and extensive monitoring of suspected cases. However, it is unknown whether these policies have had an impact on the epidemic. We sought to show how these control measures impacted the containment of the epidemic. METHODS: We integrated population migration data before and after January 23 and most updated COVID-19 epidemiological data into the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to derive the epidemic curve. We also used an artificial intelligence (AI) approach, trained on the 2003 SARS data, to predict the epidemic. RESULTS: We found that the epidemic of China should peak by late February, showing gradual decline by end of April. A five-day delay in implementation would have increased epidemic size in mainland China three-fold. Lifting the Hubei quarantine would lead to a second epidemic peak in Hubei province in mid-March and extend the epidemic to late April, a result corroborated by the machine learning prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Our dynamic SEIR model was effective in predicting the COVID-19 epidemic peaks and sizes. The implementation of control measures on January 23 2020 was indispensable in reducing the eventual COVID-19 epidemic size.